Threads · published · SYS-durrell-for-dan-while-harry-rides-elsewhere
System: Tristan Durrell on a Harry Skelton ride for Dan Skelton
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- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: published system (live from 2026-10-15)
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In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
System: Tristan Durrell on a Harry Skelton ride for Dan Skelton LIVE
because Harry Skelton rode the horse last time; today he is riding at another race, so Dan Skelton's second jockey, Tristan Durrell, takes over. The horse is no weaker, but punters read the change of name as a downgrade. When Harry keeps the ride these horses are slightly over-bet; when Durrell takes over they won about one and a half times as often as their prices implied (159 bets since 2022). The cut to horses Harry rode last time was found by looking at the record, and most of the gain is in the last year, so treat it as unproven until its live record says otherwise.
trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND last_jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND last_jockey_rides_today >= 1 AND last_jockey_rides_in_race = 0made by import
Where it started
Harry Skelton rode the horse last time; today he is riding at another race, so Dan Skelton's second jockey, Tristan Durrell, takes over. The horse is no weaker, but punters read the change of name as a downgrade. When Harry keeps the ride these horses are slightly over-bet; when Durrell takes over they won about one and a half times as often as their prices implied (159 bets since 2022). The cut to horses Harry rode last time was found by looking at the record, and most of the gain is in the last year, so treat it as unproven until its live record says otherwise.