SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS2: pulled up after jumping well SHADOW

   because Live rule without the run style: parent + Jump Index in that run 0.57 or better against its field.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.15 on 1,024 bets, by period 1.15. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,0241.15

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.15 on 838 bets, by period 1.15. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago8381.15

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.16 on 186 bets, by period 1.16. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1861.16

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.04 on 530 bets, by period 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +4.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year5301.04

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS2: pulled up after jumping well Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS2: pulled up after jumping well Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.148 on 1024 (GB 1.146, IRE 1.159), p 0.0476 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (SYS2: pulled up after jumping well) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.148 on 1024 bets (p 0.048, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well

10. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On SYS2: pulled up after jumping well