SYS4: costly jumping figures half

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS4: costly jumping figures half SHADOW

   because Live rule without the remark: chase after a beaten chase, bottom quarter for ground gained jumping.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.01 on 3,669 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago3,6691.01

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.03 on 2,884 bets, by period 1.03. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2,8841.03

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.86 on 785 bets, by period 0.86. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago7850.86

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.13 on 1,801 bets, by period 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return +13.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year1,8011.13

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS4: costly jumping figures half Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS4: costly jumping figures half Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.007 on 3669 (GB 1.032, IRE 0.865), p 0.4535 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (SYS4: costly jumping figures half) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.007 on 3669 bets (p 0.453, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half

10. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On SYS4: costly jumping figures half