VET4: old down in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   VET4: old down in trip PROMISING green

   because Aged 10+, a chase after a chase, today 2f or more shorter. Predicted below the market.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_distance_yards IS NOT NULL AND distance_yards - last_distance_yards <= -440

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 361 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.36. info

   Betfair SP return +58.7%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.36. Zone: all. On VET4: old down in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2971.00

   Later half641.36

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   VET4: old down in trip Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.058 on 361 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   VET4-old-down-in-trip (VET4: old down in trip) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.06 on 361 bets (periods 1.00 / 1.36); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom VET4-old-down-in-trip