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Systems · Profitable Betting Systems for Horseracing, ch. 8, narrowed to hurdles by Gary
The jumps top-weight system kept to hurdles, where its edge has been steadier.
Following this blindly made 7.6p on every £1 staked. A method that only breaks even would show a profit this good about 31 times in 100, so this could well be luck.
The rule was frozen on 2026-10-13 and has not been changed since. Everything above that date is a backtest; this is how it has done on races it was never fitted to. It takes a few hundred bets before this says much.
| Backed at | Bets | Winners | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting price, every qualifierEvery runner the rule picked at the off, from the results. | 0 | |||
| First price seenPicks written down when they first appeared on the racecards, at the price then. | 0 | |||
| Starting price, the same picksThose picks if left to run at SP: the difference is what the early price was worth. | 0 | |||
| Betfair SP, the same picksAfter 2% commission. | 0 |
No pick has been recorded yet.
The same 64 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +12.9 pts, 20.2% return on stakes.
None of the 7 warning signs made a clear difference to this system's selections.
Too few selections to judge: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, flattered closer, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Last 12 months only.
Warning signs known before the race, measured on this system's own selections: one that hurts one system can be harmless, or part of the edge, in another. “v market” is winners against what the prices implied. A signal is listed above when selections carrying it scored at least 0.1 lower on 25 or more bets.
No negative58 bets · 25.9% won · 1.30 v market · 17.8% at SP · 32.6% at Betfair SP
Flagged6 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Slow start last time
Missed the break on its last run. The market treats it as bad luck; it is more often a habit.
With itno selections
Without64 bets · 23.4% won · 1.21 v market · 6.8% at SP · 20.2% at Betfair SP
Repeat jumping errors
A jumping mistake noted in two or more of its last three runs. One mistake is forgivable; a horse that keeps making them is overbet.
With it5 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Without59 bets · 25.4% won · 1.28 v market · 15.8% at SP · 30.4% at Betfair SP
Hard front-end race on soft ground
Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.
With it1 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Without63 bets · 23.8% won · 1.23 v market · 8.5% at SP · 22.1% at Betfair SP
Failed comeback after a year off
Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.
With itno selections
Without64 bets · 23.4% won · 1.21 v market · 6.8% at SP · 20.2% at Betfair SP
Flattered closer
Held up last time in a race that fell apart for the front-runners, and finished in the first 40% without winning. The leaders came back to it; the close finish was not earned.
With itno selections
Without64 bets · 23.4% won · 1.21 v market · 6.8% at SP · 20.2% at Betfair SP
Repeat slow startscontextual
Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.
With itno selections
Without64 bets · 23.4% won · 1.21 v market · 6.8% at SP · 20.2% at Betfair SP
Eye-catcher last timecontextual
Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.
With it3 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Without61 bets · 24.6% won · 1.26 v market · 12.0% at SP · 26.1% at Betfair SP
| 2020 | 17 | 17.6% | +10.50 | 61.8% |
| 2021 | 61 | 18.0% | -5.92 | -9.7% |
| 2022 | 47 | 14.9% | +18.88 | 40.2% |
| 2023 | 62 | 30.6% | +15.56 | 25.1% |
| 2024 | 72 | 22.2% | -8.62 | -12.0% |
| 2025 | 108 | 25.0% | -1.73 | -1.6% |
| 2026 | 36 | 22.2% | +2.12 | 5.9% |
| Hurdle | 403 | 22.6% | +30.80 | 7.6% |