AB4: other chases aged 12 plus

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: aged 12+ in any other handicap chase.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) NOT LIKE '%veteran%' AND age >= 12

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, race_name, age

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) NOT LIKE '%veteran%' AND age >= 12

Kind

history

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,091

A/E

1.08

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.3%

224 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. AB4-other-chases-aged-12-plus Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.082 on 2091 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for AB4-other-chases-aged-12-plus (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea AB4-other-chases-aged-12-plus: AB4: other chases aged 12 plus (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.