Hypotheses · old-fresh · FR2-younger-first-run-back
FR2: younger first run back
best [broad] RED A/E 0.983 on 1514 bets
Starts the thread “FR2: younger first run back” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, a chase, 150+ days off.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND days_since_last_run >= 150
Reads: race_type, age, days_since_last_run
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND days_since_last_run >= 150
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,514
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -30.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -19.2%
- 1,493 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
FR2-younger-first-run-back Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.983 on 1514 bets
· importer
import result for FR2-younger-first-run-back (broad): info
· importer
New idea FR2-younger-first-run-back: FR2: younger first run back (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.