Hypotheses · seasonal · H09-yard-targets-this-month
H09: yard targets this month
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 57168 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H09: yard targets this month” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
In earlier years the yard beat the market by 30%+ in this calendar month (30+ runners): it aims at this time of year.
The rule
tm_runs >= 30 AND tm_wins >= 1.3 * tm_exp
Reads: tm_runs, tm_wins, tm_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tm_runs >= 30 AND tm_wins >= 1.3 * tm_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 57,168
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -23.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -5.2%
- 10,527 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.6%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H09-yard-targets-this-month Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 57168 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H09-yard-targets-this-month (broad): info
· importer
New idea H09-yard-targets-this-month: H09: yard targets this month (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.