Hypotheses · trainer-move · H106-yard-good-at-stepping-up-in-class
H106: yard good at stepping up in class
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 8675 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H106: yard good at stepping up in class” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Up in class from a yard whose earlier runners raised in class beat the market by 30%+: it does not over-face them.
The rule
tx_up_class_runs >= 25 AND tx_up_class_wins >= 1.3 * tx_up_class_exp
Reads: tx_up_class_runs, tx_up_class_wins, tx_up_class_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tx_up_class_runs >= 25 AND tx_up_class_wins >= 1.3 * tx_up_class_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 8,675
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -32.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -11.7%
- 819 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.4%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H106-yard-good-at-stepping-up-in-class Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 8675 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H106-yard-good-at-stepping-up-in-class (broad): info
· importer
New idea H106-yard-good-at-stepping-up-in-class: H106: yard good at stepping up in class (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.