Hypotheses · planned-move · H115-horse-that-wins-fresh
H115: horse that wins fresh
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 5165 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H115: horse that wins fresh” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
First run for 150+ days by a horse that has won first time back before: it is the horse's way, not just the yard's.
The rule
days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_wins >= 1
Reads: days_since_last_run, horse_fresh_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_wins >= 1
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,165
- A/E
- 1.03
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -25.7%
- 1,378 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 13.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H115-horse-that-wins-fresh Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 5165 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H115-horse-that-wins-fresh (broad): info
· importer
New idea H115-horse-that-wins-fresh: H115: horse that wins fresh (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.