H125: second season hurdler fresh

Mechanism and rationale

October-December handicap hurdle: a second-season hurdler (3-8 hurdle runs, aged 6 or under) on its first run for 150+ days.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, month, hurdle_runs, age, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "has won a hurdle",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (hurdle_wins >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "from a yard good with fresh horses",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info from a yard good with fresh horses · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

285

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-2.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+14.3%

54 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [from a yard good with fresh horses] AMBER A/E 1.067 on 285 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh (from a yard good with fresh horses): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh (has won a hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H125-second-season-hurdler-fresh: H125: second season hurdler fresh (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.