Hypotheses · trainer-logistics · H129-lone-traveller-from-a-busy-yard
H129: lone traveller from a busy yard
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 81402 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H129: lone traveller from a busy yard” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The only runner a busy yard (30+ runners in the last 30 days) sends to a meeting: a box, a lad and a day for one horse is a decision, and the market prices the horse, not the journey.
The rule
runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, COUNT(*) OVER (PARTITION BY trainer_id, race_date, course_id) AS n FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE n = 1) AND t30_runs >= 30
Reads: runner_id, select, from, count, over, partition, by, trainer_id, race_date, course_id, n, lab
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, COUNT(*) OVER (PARTITION BY trainer_id, race_date, course_id) AS n FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE n = 1) AND t30_runs >= 30
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 81,402
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -3.2%
- 13,109 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 13.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H129-lone-traveller-from-a-busy-yard Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 81402 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H129-lone-traveller-from-a-busy-yard (broad): info
· importer
New idea H129-lone-traveller-from-a-busy-yard: H129: lone traveller from a busy yard (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.