H134: chase debut from a good yard in form

Mechanism and rationale

First run over fences from a yard good at it that is also winning at or above its prices this month. Form sharpened the fresh and handicap-debut moves; chase debut is the planned move not yet combined with it.

The rule

tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Reads: tx_chase_debut_runs, tx_chase_debut_wins, tx_chase_debut_exp, t30_runs, t30_wins, t30_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

303

A/E

1.14

winners vs the prices

SP return

+0.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+40.7%

57 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 24.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [14/1 or shorter] GREEN A/E 1.144 on 303 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form: H134: chase debut from a good yard in form (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.