H138: mullins other strings in handicaps

Mechanism and rationale

Willie Mullins with three or more in a handicap, and not the shortest-priced of them. The yard is so deep that the market's pecking order (Townend's mount) is a guess; the 'wrong one' wins often.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2

Reads: trainer, is_handicap, n_stable, stable_rank

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "hurdle",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Britain",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (region = 'GB')"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info in Britain · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

150

A/E

1.52

winners vs the prices

SP return

-17.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

28 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 5.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.524 on 150 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps (in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps (hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps: H138: mullins other strings in handicaps (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.