H14: yard good at quick returns

Mechanism and rationale

Back within 10 days from a yard whose earlier quick returners beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp

Reads: tx_quick_runs, tx_quick_wins, tx_quick_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "won last time",
    "rule": "(tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp) AND (last_position = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "beaten last time",
    "rule": "(tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1))"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,697

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+35.0%

769 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [beaten last time] AMBER A/E 1.051 on 6159 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns (beaten last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns (won last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H14-yard-good-at-quick-returns: H14: yard good at quick returns (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.