H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

Mechanism and rationale

Aidan O'Brien two-year-olds beaten on debut and having their second run: the yard's juveniles improve more from the first run than any others'.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: trainer, age, prior_runs, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "unplaced on debut",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4))"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Ireland",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (region = 'IRE')"
  },
  {
    "name": "maiden",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (is_maiden = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info maiden · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

296

A/E

1.10

winners vs the prices

SP return

+1.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-16.7%

51 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 33.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Ireland] AMBER A/E 1.152 on 312 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run (maiden): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run (in Ireland): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run (unplaced on debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H148-ballydoyle-two-year-old-second-run: H148: ballydoyle two year old second run (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.