H155: three year old sprinters against elders early

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: three-year-olds meeting older horses in sprint handicaps (6f or less) from April to June. Sprinters mature late and the scale gives little at short trips; the market likes the unexposed young one.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (4, 5, 6) AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, distance_yards, month, race_id, select, from, lab

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (4, 5, 6) AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "five furlongs",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (4, 5, 6) AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)) AND (distance_yards <= 1150)"
  },
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (4, 5, 6) AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info first three in the betting · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

462

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-16.2%

82 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H155-three-year-old-sprinters-against-elders-early Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.918 on 1299 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H155-three-year-old-sprinters-against-elders-early (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H155-three-year-old-sprinters-against-elders-early (five furlongs): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H155-three-year-old-sprinters-against-elders-early (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H155-three-year-old-sprinters-against-elders-early: H155: three year old sprinters against elders early (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.