H17: jamie snowden novices

Mechanism and rationale

Jamie Snowden's novices over jumps.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: trainer, is_novice, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "hurdles",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  },
  {
    "name": "chases",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "non-handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_handicap = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "first run for 150+ days",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (days_since_last_run >= 150)"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info first run for 150+ days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

76

A/E

1.17

winners vs the prices

SP return

-7.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

10 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 22.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

• investigator v1ok · 41s · 16 Oct, 15:14

  Output (schema-checked)

  {
    "reflection": "This thread is still one imported result plus the live system built from it. Jamie Snowden's novice hurdlers and chasers scored A/E 1.115 on 488 bets. The lift held in all three periods (1.11, 1.07, 1.20), and the latest period was the strongest. The non-handicap half is better: 1.172 on 282. That implies the 206 handicap bets sit only a little above par, at about 1.04. So the effect looks like it lives where ratings tell the market least: novice non-handicaps. Two warnings come with it. First, ROI was +8.3% at BSP but -6.7% at SP, so the edge only exists at exchange prices. Second, the lab's recent findings show positive slices in other families that were really one short-price band (4/1 to 7/1) carrying everything. Nothing yet tests whether that happens here. We also don't know whether the lift is a trait of the yard (his horses improve more than their form shows) or a property of the races his novices run in. The system is live from 2026-10-13 with no live results yet. The next useful tests are the ones that could break the mechanism, not more slices of the trainer's record.",
    "answers": [],
    "questions": [
      {
        "question": "Is the Snowden novice non-handicap lift spread across the price range, or carried by one short-price band the way the marathon slices were?",
        "rationale": "Other families showed single-band concentration (4/1 to 7/1) that killed apparent edges. A trainer edge from undervalued development should appear at longer prices too, where a horse's improvement is least priced in. Columns: sp_decimal, sp_rank, trainer, is_novice, is_handicap, race_type.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-71eb5f8a"
        ],
        "priority": 0.7
      },
      {
        "question": "Is the lift strongest on a novice's first one or two runs over obstacles, where the form book holds the least about the horse?",
        "rationale": "If the mechanism is that the yard's horses improve more than visible form suggests, the market should be most wrong when there is little hurdle or chase form. Columns: hurdle_runs, chase_runs, prior_runs, race_type, days_since_last_run.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-71eb5f8a"
        ],
        "priority": 0.6
      },
      {
        "question": "Do Snowden's bumper runners (the same young stock before they jump) also beat their prices?",
        "rationale": "If the edge is about how the yard develops young horses, it should show in bumpers as well. If it does not, the edge is more about jumping or placing novices. Columns: trainer, race_type='Bumper', prior_runs, age.",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-71eb5f8a"
        ],
        "priority": 0.45
      }
    ],
    "hypotheses": [
      {
        "title": "Rival: Snowden novice lift is a short-price artefact; test the 9/2+ runners on their own",
        "family": "named-trainer",
        "operator": "rival-explanation",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 0,
        "parent_id": "SYS-jamie-snowden-novices",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-71eb5f8a"
          ],
          "question": "Does the Snowden novice lift survive outside the short-price band that carried other families' slices?",
          "mechanism": "If the yard really produces novices who improve more than their form shows, the market underrates them at every price, and most of all when they are not strongly fancied. If the lift is only at short prices, it is the general short-price cluster seen elsewhere, not a trainer trait.",
          "market_miss": "Runners from a mid-sized yard at 9/2 or bigger in novice races are priced off thin, unflattering early form. The improvement from schooling and from moving up in trip does not show in the form book.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "positive",
            "size": "A/E 1.08 to 1.20 on 150+ bets",
            "falsified_if": "A/E at or below 1.00 on 150+ bets at SP 5.5 or bigger, which would mean the system rides on the short-price band alone"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 5.5"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "the general short-price cluster seen in other families",
          "small number of winners at long prices",
          "festival or graded novice races"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.4
      },
      {
        "title": "Sharpen: Snowden novices with at most one prior run in the code",
        "family": "named-trainer",
        "operator": "sharpen",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 1,
        "parent_id": "SYS-jamie-snowden-novices",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-71eb5f8a"
          ],
          "question": "Is the lift strongest where the market has the least form over obstacles to go on?",
          "mechanism": "Snowden's horses improve with experience and schooling at home that the public cannot see. The gap between the market's view and the horse's real level is widest on the first or second start over hurdles or fences, before the form book catches up.",
          "market_miss": "Early starts over obstacles are priced from bumper or point form, or from one green run. That form understates a horse being brought along patiently.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "positive",
            "size": "A/E 1.15 to 1.30 on 120+ bets",
            "falsified_if": "A/E below the parent's 1.17 or at par on 120+ bets, which would mean the lift does not depend on how little form exists"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND is_handicap = 0 AND ((race_type = 'Hurdle' AND hurdle_runs <= 1) OR (race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs <= 1))"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "first-time-out fitness",
          "debutants in small fields at short prices",
          "period concentration in the latest year"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.35
      },
      {
        "title": "Generalise: Snowden bumper runners beat their prices",
        "family": "named-trainer",
        "operator": "generalise",
        "question_id": null,
        "new_question": 2,
        "parent_id": "H17-jamie-snowden-novices",
        "reasoning": {
          "observation_ids": [
            "O-71eb5f8a"
          ],
          "question": "Does the yard's edge with young horses extend to bumpers?",
          "mechanism": "If the lift comes from how the yard develops young stock, the same horses should beat their prices in bumpers before they ever jump.",
          "market_miss": "Bumper runners carry almost no public form, so prices lean on pedigree and the yard's reputation. A yard whose horses outrun their profile would be underrated there.",
          "prediction": {
            "direction": "positive",
            "size": "A/E 1.05 to 1.20 on 100+ bets",
            "falsified_if": "A/E at or below 1.00 on 100+ bets, which would mean the edge is specific to jumping or to how the yard places novices"
          },
          "rule_sketch": "trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND race_type = 'Bumper'"
        },
        "confounders": [
          "small sample",
          "the market rates bumper yards differently",
          "Irish point purchases"
        ],
        "expected_survival": 0.3
      }
    ],
    "findings": [
      {
        "statement": "Snowden's novice lift is concentrated in non-handicaps (1.172 on 282 against 1.115 on all 488), so the handicap remainder sits at about 1.04. The edge lives where official ratings shape prices least.",
        "kind": "holds",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-71eb5f8a"
        ]
      },
      {
        "statement": "The Snowden novice edge shows +8.3% ROI at BSP but -6.7% at SP, so it can only be taken at exchange prices.",
        "kind": "data",
        "observation_ids": [
          "O-71eb5f8a"
        ]
      }
    ]
  }

Timeline

1. Job 55 finished

   15 Oct, 23:29 · engine:compute-2

2. compute-2 took job 55 (mutate, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:29 · compute-2

3. Queued mutate on the compute lane: AI unavailable: deterministic mutations of a live candidate

   15 Oct, 23:29 · engine:scheduler

4. hypothesis note H17-jamie-snowden-novices

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. H17-jamie-snowden-novices Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [non-handicap] GREEN A/E 1.172 on 282 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H17-jamie-snowden-novices (first run for 150+ days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for H17-jamie-snowden-novices (non-handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. import result for H17-jamie-snowden-novices (chases): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

9. import result for H17-jamie-snowden-novices (hurdles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. import result for H17-jamie-snowden-novices (broad): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. New idea H17-jamie-snowden-novices: H17: jamie snowden novices (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.