Hypotheses · age-career · H178-lightly-raced-older-jumper

H178: lightly raced older jumper

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 22850 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H178: lightly raced older jumper” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Aged eight or more with eight or fewer career runs, in a jumps handicap: fragile, so it has been unable to show what it is, and still improving; the market sees an old horse with moderate form.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND age >= 8 AND prior_runs <= 8

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND age >= 8 AND prior_runs <= 8
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 22,850
A/E: 1.02; winners vs the prices
SP return: -17.7%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +4.6%; 636 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 8.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-2219,4411.02

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H178-lightly-raced-older-jumper Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 22850 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H178-lightly-raced-older-jumper (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H178-lightly-raced-older-jumper: H178: lightly raced older jumper (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.