H179: four year olds in spring bumpers

Mechanism and rationale

Four-year-olds in bumpers from February to April: they get an allowance from older horses fixed for the whole season, and by spring they have grown into it.

The rule

race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)

Reads: race_type, age, month

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "debut",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)) AND (prior_runs = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Britain",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)) AND (region = 'GB')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,227

A/E

0.88

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+17.3%

208 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [in Britain] NEGATIVE A/E 0.813 on 1536 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers (in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers (debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers: H179: four year olds in spring bumpers (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.