H195: flat speed over hurdles on winter good ground

Mechanism and rationale

A hurdler with three or more Flat runs, over 2m1f or less, on good or faster ground from December to February. Good winter ground is rare, turns a hurdle into a speed test, and the jumps-bred rivals earned their form in the mud.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740

Reads: race_type, month, going_group, flat_runs, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "a track that drains well",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740) AND (track_drains_well = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "novice or maiden",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740) AND ((is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

261

A/E

1.20

winners vs the prices

SP return

+11.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-28.9%

37 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [14/1 or shorter] GREEN A/E 1.199 on 261 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground (novice or maiden): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground (a track that drains well): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground: H195: flat speed over hurdles on winter good ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.