H203: favourite in a two or three runner race

Mechanism and rationale

The favourite in a race of two or three runners. Two-sided: tiny fields are tactical and the best horse can be out-manoeuvred, or there is simply nothing to beat it.

The rule

field_size <= 3 AND is_favourite = 1

Reads: field_size, is_favourite

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

field_size <= 3 AND is_favourite = 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,346

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-6.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-7.8%

262 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 56.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H203-favourite-in-a-two-or-three-runner-race Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 1346 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H203-favourite-in-a-two-or-three-runner-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H203-favourite-in-a-two-or-three-runner-race: H203: favourite in a two or three runner race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.