H204: favourite on heavy ground

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the favourite on heavy ground. Most form is earned on better ground, heavy turns it over, and the market still puts the form horse in front.

The rule

going_group = 'heavy' AND is_favourite = 1

Reads: going_group, is_favourite

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

going_group = 'heavy' AND is_favourite = 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,581

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-10.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-13.4%

795 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 33.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H204-favourite-on-heavy-ground Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.99 on 4581 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H204-favourite-on-heavy-ground (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H204-favourite-on-heavy-ground: H204: favourite on heavy ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.