H207: top weight in a wide handicap

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight where the weights span two stone or more: a class horse dropped among much lesser ones. Class is worth more than pounds, and the market shies from the burden.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28

Reads: is_handicap, weight_rank_high, top_weight_lbs, bottom_weight_lbs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "class 5 or 6",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28) AND (race_class >= 5)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info class 5 or 6 · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

871

A/E

0.91

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+13.0%

286 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 0.914 on 2047 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (class 5 or 6): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap: H207: top weight in a wide handicap (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.