H209: top weight in a claimer

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight in a claiming race. In a claimer the trainer chooses the weight by naming the price he will lose the horse for, so the top weight is the one its own yard values most.

The rule

is_claiming = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

Reads: is_claiming, weight_rank_high

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_claiming = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(is_claiming = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not the favourite",
    "rule": "(is_claiming = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1) AND (sp_rank >= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info not the favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

649

A/E

0.88

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+50.7%

74 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 0.916 on 589 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer (not the favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer: H209: top weight in a claimer (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.