Hypotheses · race-stable · H213-four-or-more-from-one-yard
H213: four or more from one yard
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 2576 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H213: four or more from one yard” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A yard with four or more runners in one handicap: it has aimed its string at this race, and the market spreads the yard's chance across them unevenly by jockey. (Named-yard version: Mullins other strings were 1.20 but unstable.)
The rule
is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 4
Reads: is_handicap, n_stable
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 4
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 2,576
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -23.2%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +71.6%
- 425 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 5.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H213-four-or-more-from-one-yard Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 2576 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H213-four-or-more-from-one-yard (broad): info
· importer
New idea H213-four-or-more-from-one-yard: H213: four or more from one yard (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.