H227: class veteran in a hunter chase

Mechanism and rationale

Hunter chases: aged ten or more with three or more chase wins under Rules. A former handicapper against point-to-pointers; class lasts longer than speed and these races are run at a hunter's pace.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND race_name LIKE '%Hunter%' AND age >= 10 AND chase_wins >= 3

Reads: race_type, race_name, age, chase_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND race_name LIKE '%Hunter%' AND age >= 10 AND chase_wins >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND race_name LIKE '%Hunter%' AND age >= 10 AND chase_wins >= 3) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "ran in the last 60 days",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND race_name LIKE '%Hunter%' AND age >= 10 AND chase_wins >= 3) AND (days_since_last_run <= 60)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info ran in the last 60 days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

160

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.9%

46 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 18.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H227-class-veteran-in-a-hunter-chase Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [ran in the last 60 days] RED A/E 0.976 on 160 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H227-class-veteran-in-a-hunter-chase (ran in the last 60 days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H227-class-veteran-in-a-hunter-chase (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H227-class-veteran-in-a-hunter-chase (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H227-class-veteran-in-a-hunter-chase: H227: class veteran in a hunter chase (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.