H23: hurdle prep into a chase

Mechanism and rationale

Established chaser (2+ chases) whose last run, within 45 days, was over hurdles: hidden fitness.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, chase_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "open handicap chase",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2) AND (is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "open handicap, unplaced over hurdles, 14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2) AND (is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "...and in Britain",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2) AND (is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND region = 'GB')"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info ...and in Britain · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

838

A/E

1.31

winners vs the prices

SP return

+7.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+30.8%

138 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [...and in Britain] GREEN A/E 1.312 on 838 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase (...and in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase (open handicap, unplaced over hurdles, 14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase (open handicap chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase: H23: hurdle prep into a chase (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.