Hypotheses · placement · H25-quick-return-after-an-easy-race
H25: quick return after an easy race
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 18714 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H25: quick return after an easy race” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Unplaced last time and back within 7 days: the trainer thinks the first run took nothing out of it.
The rule
days_since_last_run <= 7 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)
Reads: days_since_last_run, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
days_since_last_run <= 7 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 18,714
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -30.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -15.0%
- 2,640 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H25-quick-return-after-an-easy-race Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 18714 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H25-quick-return-after-an-easy-race (broad): info
· importer
New idea H25-quick-return-after-an-easy-race: H25: quick return after an easy race (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.