H28: second run back

Mechanism and rationale

Second run after 150+ days off, within 35 days of the first: the first run put it right.

The rule

days_since_last_run <= 35 AND days_before_last >= 150

Reads: days_since_last_run, days_before_last

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

days_since_last_run <= 35 AND days_before_last >= 150

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

40,225

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-28.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.7%

7,278 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H28-second-run-back Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 40225 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H28-second-run-back (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H28-second-run-back: H28: second run back (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.