H34: won easily last time

Mechanism and rationale

Won with something in hand last time: the margin undersells it and the handicapper can only react to the margin.

The rule

last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1

Reads: last_position, last_won_easily

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "back within 14 days",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1) AND (days_since_last_run <= 14)"
  },
  {
    "name": "up in class",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1) AND (race_class < last_race_class)"
  },
  {
    "name": "won by under 3 lengths on paper",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1) AND (last_beaten_lengths IS NULL)"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info won by under 3 lengths on paper · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

0

A/E

–

winners vs the prices

SP return

–

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

0 bets with a BSP

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note H34-won-easily-last-time

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. H34-won-easily-last-time Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [back within 14 days] GREEN A/E 1.147 on 597 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H34-won-easily-last-time (won by under 3 lengths on paper): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H34-won-easily-last-time (up in class): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H34-won-easily-last-time (back within 14 days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H34-won-easily-last-time (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for H34-won-easily-last-time (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. New idea H34-won-easily-last-time: H34: won easily last time (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.