H38: backed after being unfancied

Mechanism and rationale

20/1 or bigger last time, 5/1 or shorter today: somebody knows it is a different horse now.

The rule

last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND sp_decimal <= 6

Reads: last_sp_decimal, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND sp_decimal <= 6

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

19,887

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.5%

3,467 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 23.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H38-backed-after-being-unfancied Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.029 on 19887 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H38-backed-after-being-unfancied (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H38-backed-after-being-unfancied: H38: backed after being unfancied (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.