H43: jockey upgrade

Mechanism and rationale

A jockey winning 18%+ of rides takes over from a different rider: the yard wants it ridden today.

The rule

jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18 AND last_jockey_id IS NOT NULL AND last_jockey_id != jockey_id

Reads: jockey_runs, jockey_wins, last_jockey_id, jockey_id

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18 AND last_jockey_id IS NOT NULL AND last_jockey_id != jockey_id

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

21,301

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+1.7%

3,234 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H43-jockey-upgrade Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 21301 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H43-jockey-upgrade (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H43-jockey-upgrade: H43: jockey upgrade (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.