H50: wide trip by track geometry

Mechanism and rationale

The wide-trip system: a wide run should cost more at a sharp, turning track than at a galloping one.

The rule

last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Reads: last_raced_wide, last_position, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "last run at a sharp track",
    "rule": "(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (last_track_sharpness >= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run at a galloping track",
    "rule": "(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (last_track_sharpness = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "no slow start, not a flattered closer",
    "rule": "(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce((last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4), 0))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat, 14/1 or shorter, no slow start",
    "rule": "(last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND (race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND last_slow_start = 0)"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info Flat, 14/1 or shorter, no slow start · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

832

A/E

1.22

winners vs the prices

SP return

+6.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+25.1%

831 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 21.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [no slow start, not a flattered closer] GREEN A/E 1.249 on 1114 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (Flat, 14/1 or shorter, no slow start): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (no slow start, not a flattered closer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (last run at a galloping track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (last run at a sharp track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry: H50: wide trip by track geometry (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.