H54: gordon elliott in november

Mechanism and rationale

Gordon Elliott's jumpers in November, the month his string comes to hand.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: trainer, month, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "first run for 150+ days",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (days_since_last_run >= 150)"
  },
  {
    "name": "second run back",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (days_since_last_run <= 45 AND days_before_last >= 150)"
  },
  {
    "name": "novice or maiden",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

306

A/E

1.09

winners vs the prices

SP return

-32.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.8%

48 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H54-gordon-elliott-in-november Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [second run back] AMBER A/E 1.302 on 138 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H54-gordon-elliott-in-november (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H54-gordon-elliott-in-november (novice or maiden): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H54-gordon-elliott-in-november (second run back): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H54-gordon-elliott-in-november (first run for 150+ days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H54-gordon-elliott-in-november (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H54-gordon-elliott-in-november: H54: gordon elliott in november (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.