Hypotheses · habit · H59-second-twice-running
H59: second twice running
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 11724 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H59: second twice running” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: second on both of its last two runs. Backed as due a win; some horses find one too good.
The rule
last_position = 2 AND position_2_back = 2
Reads: last_position, position_2_back
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_position = 2 AND position_2_back = 2
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 11,724
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -19.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -5.4%
- 1,981 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 20.6%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H59-second-twice-running Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 11724 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H59-second-twice-running (broad): info
· importer
New idea H59-second-twice-running: H59: second twice running (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.