H62: course likes course winner

Mechanism and rationale

Previous course winner at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Quirky tracks where knowing the place is worth more than the market allows.

The rule

cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp

Reads: cp_course_winner_runs, cp_course_winner_wins, cp_course_winner_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp) AND (cp_course_winner_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

962

A/E

0.92

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

0 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H62-course-likes-course-winner Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.921 on 962 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H62-course-likes-course-winner (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H62-course-likes-course-winner (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H62-course-likes-course-winner (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H62-course-likes-course-winner (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H62-course-likes-course-winner: H62: course likes course winner (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.