H65: course likes top weight

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight in a handicap at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks where class tells and weight stops them less.

The rule

cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp

Reads: cp_top_weight_runs, cp_top_weight_wins, cp_top_weight_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp) AND (cp_top_weight_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

896

A/E

0.93

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+17.9%

115 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H65-course-likes-top-weight Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.858 on 1079 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H65-course-likes-top-weight (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H65-course-likes-top-weight (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H65-course-likes-top-weight (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H65-course-likes-top-weight (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H65-course-likes-top-weight: H65: course likes top weight (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.