H69: course likes led last

Mechanism and rationale

Led last time out at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that favour front-runners (last year only: needs the remarks).

The rule

cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp

Reads: cp_led_last_runs, cp_led_last_wins, cp_led_last_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "30+ earlier runners is enough",
    "rule": "(cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp) AND (1 = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 30+ earlier runners is enough · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

375

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-3.8%

375 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H69-course-likes-led-last Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [Flat] RED A/E 1.01 on 251 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H69-course-likes-led-last (30+ earlier runners is enough): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H69-course-likes-led-last (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H69-course-likes-led-last (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H69-course-likes-led-last (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H69-course-likes-led-last: H69: course likes led last (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.