H76: course likes class drop

Mechanism and rationale

Down in class at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Lower-grade tracks where a class dropper really does outclass them.

The rule

cp_class_drop_runs >= 60 AND cp_class_drop_wins >= 1.25 * cp_class_drop_exp

Reads: cp_class_drop_runs, cp_class_drop_wins, cp_class_drop_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_class_drop_runs >= 60 AND cp_class_drop_wins >= 1.25 * cp_class_drop_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_class_drop_runs >= 60 AND cp_class_drop_wins >= 1.25 * cp_class_drop_exp) AND (cp_class_drop_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_class_drop_runs >= 60 AND cp_class_drop_wins >= 1.25 * cp_class_drop_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_class_drop_runs >= 60 AND cp_class_drop_wins >= 1.25 * cp_class_drop_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,253

A/E

1.05

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

0 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H76-course-likes-class-drop Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.047 on 1346 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H76-course-likes-class-drop (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H76-course-likes-class-drop (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H76-course-likes-class-drop (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H76-course-likes-class-drop (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H76-course-likes-class-drop: H76: course likes class drop (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.