H84: in front too far from home

Mechanism and rationale

Took the lead a long way out last time and was run down: ridden for speed it did not have, or sent too soon.

The rule

lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1

Reads: lt_front_too_soon, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "beaten 5L or less",
    "rule": "(lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (last_beaten_lengths <= 5)"
  },
  {
    "name": "down in trip",
    "rule": "(lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info jumps · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

400

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-7.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+14.3%

398 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H84-in-front-too-far-from-home Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.061 on 400 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H84-in-front-too-far-from-home (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H84-in-front-too-far-from-home (down in trip): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H84-in-front-too-far-from-home (beaten 5L or less): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H84-in-front-too-far-from-home (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H84-in-front-too-far-from-home: H84: in front too far from home (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.