H87: lost ground through the race

Mechanism and rationale

Finished at least four places worse than it sat in mid-race: stopped. Is that a horse to forgive or to avoid?

The rule

lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4

Reads: lt_mid_position, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "down in trip",
    "rule": "(lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4) AND (distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220)"
  },
  {
    "name": "down in class",
    "rule": "(lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4) AND (race_class > last_race_class)"
  },
  {
    "name": "first-time headgear",
    "rule": "(lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4) AND (first_headgear = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info first-time headgear · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

238

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+41.6%

237 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 5.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H87-lost-ground-through-the-race Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.074 on 2247 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H87-lost-ground-through-the-race (first-time headgear): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H87-lost-ground-through-the-race (down in class): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H87-lost-ground-through-the-race (down in trip): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H87-lost-ground-through-the-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H87-lost-ground-through-the-race: H87: lost ground through the race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.