H91: the stable second string

Mechanism and rationale

The yard runs two or more and this is not its shortest-priced: the stable jockey's choice is not the only one with a chance.

The rule

n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2

Reads: n_stable, stable_rank

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "the yard's other runner is the favourite",
    "rule": "(n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (favourites >= 1 AND sp_rank > 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "yard good in this kind of race",
    "rule": "(n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info yard good in this kind of race · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,206

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.0%

915 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H91-the-stable-second-string Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.949 on 48777 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H91-the-stable-second-string (yard good in this kind of race): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H91-the-stable-second-string (the yard's other runner is the favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H91-the-stable-second-string (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H91-the-stable-second-string (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H91-the-stable-second-string (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H91-the-stable-second-string: H91: the stable second string (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.