IQ00a: control last run has figures

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: every jumps runner whose last run has jumping figures. Should be 1.00.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index IS NOT NULL

Reads: race_type, l_jump_index

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index IS NOT NULL

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

30,505

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.4%

30,459 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ00a-control-last-run-has-figures Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.012 on 30505 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ00a-control-last-run-has-figures (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ00a-control-last-run-has-figures: IQ00a: control last run has figures (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.