IQ09: finished fast after jumping well

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: among the fastest quarter over the final third, in the better half for ground gained jumping, and did not win. Stamina shown with nothing owed to the others' mistakes.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_late_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, l_late_pct, l_lgj_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_late_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,272

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.8%

4,266 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ09-finished-fast-after-jumping-well Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 4272 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ09-finished-fast-after-jumping-well (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ09-finished-fast-after-jumping-well: IQ09: finished fast after jumping well (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.