IQ101: false stayer

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: a chase of 3m+. Placed over 3m+ before, but only in the easier half of chases by what they demanded, and it has never had more left than expected late in a hard chase. It has won over the distance without being asked the question.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, st_placed_3m_measured, st_placed_3m_top_demand, st_best_hard

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "today forecast to be a test",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0) AND (st_forecast_high = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "today not forecast to be a test",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0) AND (st_forecast_high = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy today",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

316

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.0%

316 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ101-false-stayer Discovery → KILLED import: best [soft or heavy today] AMBER A/E 1.161 on 120 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ101-false-stayer (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ101-false-stayer (soft or heavy today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ101-false-stayer (today not forecast to be a test): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ101-false-stayer (today forecast to be a test): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ101-false-stayer (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ101-false-stayer: IQ101: false stayer (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.