IQ103: control not placed over 3m

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: a chase of 3m+, and the horse has never won or been placed in one. Stamina to prove, on paper.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, st_placed_3m

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,193

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-3.9%

1,192 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ103-control-not-placed-over-3m Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.038 on 1193 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ103-control-not-placed-over-3m (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ103-control-not-placed-over-3m: IQ103: control not placed over 3m (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.