IQ104: hidden stayer

Mechanism and rationale

A chase of 3m+. Never won or placed over 3m+, but has had more left than expected late in a hard chase. The form book says stamina to prove; it has already passed a harder examination than most that have won over the trip.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, st_placed_3m, st_best_hard

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "never run over 3m+ and the hard chase was shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0) AND (st_3m_runs = 0 AND st_best_hard_short > 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "half a standard deviation or more",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0) AND (st_best_hard >= 0.5)"
  },
  {
    "name": "today forecast to be a test",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0) AND (st_forecast_high = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

122

A/E

1.23

winners vs the prices

SP return

-5.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.0%

122 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 22.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ104-hidden-stayer Discovery → KILLED import: best [never run over 3m+ and the hard chase was shorter] AMBER A/E 1.357 on 84 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ104-hidden-stayer (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ104-hidden-stayer (today forecast to be a test): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ104-hidden-stayer (half a standard deviation or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ104-hidden-stayer (never run over 3m+ and the hard chase was shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ104-hidden-stayer (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ104-hidden-stayer: IQ104: hidden stayer (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.