IQ111: control second try at 3m after finishing the first

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: second chase at 3m+, having finished the first.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_pulled_up = 0 AND f3_fell = 0

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_kind, f3_pulled_up, f3_fell

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_pulled_up = 0 AND f3_fell = 0

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,098

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+17.3%

418 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ111-control-second-try-at-3m-after-finishing-the-first Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.064 on 3098 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ111-control-second-try-at-3m-after-finishing-the-first (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ111-control-second-try-at-3m-after-finishing-the-first: IQ111: control second try at 3m after finishing the first (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.