Hypotheses · overlay · IQ141b-wide-early-recovered-yes

IQ141b: wide early recovered yes

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.181 on 94 bets

Starts the thread “IQ141b: wide early recovered yes” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

LOOK: wide early and recovered, and it made up two or more places after the first third.

The rule

(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 2

Reads: race_type, last_early_setback, last_recovered, last_raced_wide, last_slow_start, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, l_gained_mid, l_gained_final

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL AND l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 2
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 94
A/E: 1.18; winners vs the prices
SP return: -14.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +1.7%; 92 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.23

Strike rate 20.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half411.29

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ141b-wide-early-recovered-yes Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.181 on 94 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ141b-wide-early-recovered-yes (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ141b-wide-early-recovered-yes: IQ141b: wide early recovered yes (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.